bandwidth. in this case you have at&t agreeing to partner with akamai instead of competing on the delivery network services. in the meantime, look what's going on, it's up 10%. at&t pulling back for the dow component. david: okay. stay tuned, folks, because we have a morningstar analysts who is one of the realistic ones with regard to apple. this guy's saying within this range at about 550, it is a screaming buy. maybe not so much -- >> reporter: a lot of guys agree with that, dave, absolutely. david: nicole, thank you very much. liz: the bells are ringing on wall street, and it is a green day on the street. not a bad move here finally up about 41 points. not the biggest gain in the world, but it does show optimism, david, doesn't it? right. s&p 500 seeing a gain of about four and a half points, the nasdaq better by 15, so a complete reversal from yesterday. russell 2000 finally punching up to the upside by about one point. david: and unless you'rr long on

oil, oil was not a dark spot at all today, in fact, it was good news for those looking to see a little bit of those sinking prices getting back to a level where it may not interfere with the economy the way it was beginning to. oil stepped back about one and three-quarters percent today closing at $86.38. liz: the ecb cutting at least the rate forecast of growth and so, nonetheless, that didn't help the picture, but the tech sector rallying today. as we mentioned, apple helping to push the rebounded after yesterday's steep drop. it hit a four-year low yesterday. let's look at iyw, apple makes up more than 22% of this etf which also holds tech heavyweights ibm and microsoft, three-quarters of a percent gain, and then the tech etf xlk also rose today. the fund's very large holding is, of course, apple. we've got two ceos coming up that you are going to want to listen to. tom is the ceo of tmx group. it owns and operates the toronto

stock exchange to our neighbors in the north, here in studio talking about the changing landscape for exchanges. the possibility of more acquisitions to come. david: and we're also going to be talking with the ceo and president of choice hotels, this is steve joyce. steve is going to be talking about their expansion right here in the u.s. including a three-star, upscale hotel. they had been focusing on the lower scale hotels. will that hurt their brand, or might it increase it? we'll be asking him. liz: first, what drove the markets in today's data download. stocks closing higher after struggling for direction early on with the dow crossing the flat line 25 times. all three major indices did post gains. technology had to be, right? was one of the best performers along with consumer discretionary. today's top performing sectors, health care and utilities, well, they did lag. the number of americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits falling

for a third straight week as we remind you, thises the number you want to see fall. hurricane sandy's impact continues to slowly but surely subside. we had weekly jobless claims dropping by 25,000 last week to a seasonally-adjusted 370,000. the week's prior total was revised upward to 395,000 from 393,000. and treasury prices rising today, pushing yields back down to their lowest level in more than two weeks. look at this pathetic yield on the ten-year note. it fell two basis points to 1.57%. you're not getting a lot of return there. david: which is why some people are putting their money in stocks. we have all this covered. we have til mulholland in the pits of the cme. we have a street fight. jeff believes there will be a fiscal cliff resolution. david wright, on the other hand, thinks d.c. will avoid the cliff, but it will not stop the bears from coming around this

time. let's start with tim at the cme. and, tim, we were talking about what a low yield you get now on treasuries. people are looking for some kind of yield, and the only place you're finding it is in the stock market. >> yeah, that's true. you also get the corporate bond market, the high-yield market. the fed has really through their interest rate repression forced people into risk assets, so the fixed income -- david: let me just stop you there, tim. you say interest rate repression on the part of the fed. that sounds like you're not too happy with the fed. [laughter] >> the fed's basically taken the market disciplinary function out of the marketplace with purchasing $85 billion a month with treasuries. they've been doing that for quite some time, so they basically have been, you know, manipulating the interest rates which i think is also when people taak about corporate spreads, high-yield speeds and treasuries, i think you have to be careful how you analyze that. the bottom line is you're forcing people into equities because that is where value is

perceived at this point. liz: well, jim, looking at optimism in the markets, but nonetheless, is it healthy to be all in on a day after a day like today, i guess? [laughter] >> you know, the market drifts, but, you know, i think what you're looking at is there's this old saying that instability breeds stability. david: tomorrow we get the all-important unemployment numbers for the month of september. of course, it is going to be distorted somewhat by hurricane sandy, but is that going to move the market in any way? david: tim, that's to you. >> oh, okay, i'm sorry. [laughter] i think they're going to give a pass on hurricane sandy at this point was it's already known in the market. we've had some good numbers up to this point, so i think @hey'll be looking towards next month. david: gotcha. we're going to check in with you in just a few minutes, see how

the s&p futures close. liz: time for the street fight. jeff cloet and our bear, david conviction. sierra investment management director. jeff, you have your horns fully placed here. why so firmly if the clarity isn't really there when it comes to what the actual global land scape is looking like from europe to here in the u.s.? >> well, i just spent two weeks in europe, and i don't think things are as bad in europe as a lot of people do. liz: why not? >> the politicians, the bankers and the bureaucrats are the same in europe as they are here. they don't want to lose their jobs, and they're going to continue to paper over this and try to buy time just like we did in our fiasco in '07, '08 and '09. david: david, on the other hand, some people would say what they're doing is stunting growth, raising tax rates, something that may stunt our growth as well.

you say that this bull market is overbought right now. it's about to end. why and how sharp a correction are you expecting? >> well, we believe that the high of 12 weeks ago was probably the high for the whole recovery cycle the that started in march of '09. remember that the u.s. stock market was the only market in the world that made a new high this year. we were the best looking house on a very bad looking street. and we believe that the market is overvalued perhaps 20-30%, but we also believe, as jeff did, that europe is important. we are much more pessimistic about europe. as you know, the ecb today came out with a negative report on growth, and a montt ago the imf came out and said that austerity is hurting the prospects for repayment. we believe that the recession in europe is both broadening to countries like germany and deepening in the countries where there are already roadway sessions and, in-- already

recessions and, indeed, depression. greece and spain. liz: jeff looks like he's about to damage you. go ahead, jeff. >> are well, you know, they're going to make a deal in washington. i lived inside the beltway, have a pretty good network inside the beltway. cantor is worried -- excuse me, not cantor, boehner is worried about not being reelected as speaker of the house. they can't vote on that until january 4th with the new congress on that. cantor wants that job. so i think boehner's going to press for a deal, i think he's going to go ahead and allow president obama to raise taxes to 39.6%, and i think that'll take the edge off the fiscal cliff. david: let's take this discussion out of the beltway and into the real world. the economy, and, jeff, i want to start with you because you're bullish, but if you're so bullish, hy are you downgrading housing right now? >> because our housing team made a really good call on the housing stocks, and they outran their valuations on a short to intermediate-term basis. they downgraded them about two months ago. liz: okay, so where's the money?

show it to us. >> i like just about everything except consumer staples. i think industrials look good, i think they are the new consumer staples. i think that consumer staples are the new investment vehicles of utility investors -- liz: and you like american tower, sba communications, you know, i just wonder why specifically that? is it sort of the cycle that you expect? we'll have a coiled spring from people holding back from spending? >> no. eventually, your computer's going to be in your cell phone or your quite, and you need -- your device, and you can think of the tower companies as realities in the sky -- real estate in the sky. david: david, what is a bear to do with his money? [laughter] >> all right. well, muni bonds have really soared most of the year. they're up about 4.5% since the stock market peaked 12 weeks ago, mid september, whereas the s&p is negative 3%. we think there's value in munis -- david: okay, let me stop you right there, david.

>> okay. david: what kind of munis? there are a lot of communities in this country that put out the bonds, and frankly, they're just about as shaky as our federal government. so where do you go? >> right. all that is in the market. you go to open end mutual funds. you want to let professional pick a very, very diversified portfolio of munii and prune the garden when things look bad for any given holding. liz: we've got some breaking news on this endless parade of companies that are pushing up their dividends. mcgraw-hill is going to be pushing forth their special dividend before the end of the year, but dell interestingly enough is saying that it will put out a january 23rd quarterly cash dividend, so after the fiscal cliff. but it's mcgraw-hill that's getting a little bit of a bump here. you know, jeff, do you see that as a trade, or do you stay away from the companies that are trying to push up their dividends ahead of the fiscal cliff deadline? >> well, if you look at some of the companies that paid special dividends, they've actually declined after paying the

special dividends, so i don't think you invest in a company just because it's paying a special dividend. david: david, what is the price going to be if, indeed, both you and jeff believe there will be some last minute resolution to this fiscal cliff, but if not, are we entering into a deep recession? >> well, of course. but wear in -- david: hold on a second. you say, of course. you say there's no question about it? >> well, i mean, that's what the people who study that possibility have all said. but, you know, we're very bullish on a resolution. but remember that the resolution is bearish for the economy. we will be cutting back on government spending, and we will be taxing more. that is bearish for the economy at the margin. david: all right. let's hope they do come to some kind of resolution. good to see you, gentlemen. liz: that was a great discussion, guys, thank you. david: well, the debt battle is waging on in d.c. even with most of the house out of town right now. they're gone until next tuesday. we're going to be heading to d.c. for the very latest. liz: choice hotels, known for

comfort inns and quality inns is expanding their brand right here in america. why now? we'll ask ceo and president steve joyce about that and moving up the dividend payout to before the end of the year. david: but, first, on fox business the ceo of tmx group, this is the parent of the toronto stock exchange. you've heard about how the banks in the canada avoided a lot of the subprime mess that our banks got into it. well, the banks getting involved directly in the stock market. tom is going to tell us how and whether or not there are some hidden problems for the banking community up north. he'll be coming up next. ♪ [ male announcer ] this is amy. amy likes to invest in the market.

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david: it's kind of hard to get a fix on what the market was doing towards the end of the day. let's go back down to the cme to see how s&p futures are closing right now with tim. go ahead, tim. >> yeah.

closing on the high of the day. you know, real lackluster, holiday-like session ahead of tomorrow, and that's really been the flavor of the past, you know, week or so. so until we get some of this important news we're waiting for, we're probably going to continue on this path. on the highs, i don't think they're worried about the report tomorrow because of hurricane sandy, so i think, you know, we have a bit still, but we'll see happens. davvd: good to see you, tim mulholland, appreciate it. liz: shares of yelp are dropping today. we need to hear this from nicole petallides at the new york stock exchange. >> reporter: this reads like a book. this is something really interesting. a woman had some work done, she was in virginia, had some work done by a contractor, and she was not happy. as a result, she wrote a report on yell m and also on angie's list basically saying that the guy didn't do do good job. in turn, she's being sued for nearly a million dollars for defamation on the internet. a judge actually ruled that she needs to take down her negative review. so then that brings up freedom

of speech issues. as a result, what happens to yelp? we saw the stock tanking today. not good news because, ultimately, are people writing what really happened? are they speculating? is it one opinion versus another? so these are the types of things that come into play when you're talking about yelp which finished down 75 cents. liz: everybody's got anonymous megahorn on the internet. david: that's right. thank you, nicole. well, i guess members of the house of representatives aren't expecting a debt deal in the next couple of days, because they've gone home. liz: where do we stand now? they went home as we get dangerously close to the cliff. rich edson live in washington. we know this has been planned for a long time, but nonetheless, now we're just dead in the water for the moment. >> reporter: we are. and just a couple of minutes ago "the wall street journal" coming out with a headline that budget talks have resumed between the president's staff and the speaker's staff. that's something that we're going to check on ourselves in just a couple of minutes with both sides still stuck over tax rates, that still remains the

issue. the house is out until tuesday, republican lawmakers say they'll speak with small businesses while back in their districts to discuss the president's tax plan and highlight what they call his small business tax hike. president obama spent his afternoon in northern virginia again pushing his case for raising taxes on families earning more than $250,000 a year. >> i'm not going to sign any package that somehow prevents the top rate from going up for folks at the top 2%, but i do remain optimistic that we can get something done that is good for families like this one and that is good for the american economy. >> so i think it's safe to say at this point that the president actually isn't interested in a balanced agreement, he's not particularly interested in avoiding the fiscal cliff, and he's clearly not interested at all in cutting any spending. >> reporter: while democrats

and republicans debate the size and specifics on tax increases, the two sides also remain apart on spending cuts, reforming entitlement programs like medicare and on the president's request to have greater power to raise the country's debt limit. but the news coming out of this one, "wall street journal" headlines saying that staff members from the president's team and from speaker boehner's team are genre assuming talks. we confirmed as of a couple of hours hag that that wasn't the case, so we're going to check on that right now. david: what they're talking about, we don't know. liz: maybe not dead in the water. david: thank you, rich, appreciate it. liz: we've got good news for all of you last minute shoppers out there coming up in the speed read. david: and up next, first on fox business, tom kloet, ceo of tmx group, a parent of the toronto stock exchange, on the impact of all these regulations coming out of our country. how will they affect businesses in his country? that's coming up. ♪ nd we can save you 10% on ground shipping ovethe ups store.

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david: time for a quick speed read of some of the day's headlines, five stories in a minute. first up, u.s. households' net worth rise anything the third quarter. according to federal reserve, total net worth rose $1.7 trillion to $64.8 trillion. and last minute shoppers are in luck, macy's keeping most of its stores open from 7 a.m. friday, december 21st, through 7 a.m. sunday, december 23rd, for a special sale right at the last minute. 48 hours straight it'll be open. and you can head to beijing

without a visa. china's going to allow foreign visitor to stay in way ginning for -- beijing for three days if they're heading into another country. but you have to buy a lot of stuff. [laughter] console, energy and qt production company have submitted multimillion dollar bids to drill for natural gas and oil on land surrounding pittsburgh international airport. the drilling revenue would reduce gate fees which could lead to cheaper flights. pan tone which -- named emerald as 2013's color of the year. the time has come, and that's today's speed read. liz: emerald green. the parent company of the toronto stock exchange is joining forces with the maple group in a move that is enabling the company to expand it product offerings. david: tom kloet is the see crow of -- ceo of tmx group.

what a pleasure to see you. you're an american, by the way. >> i am. david: they brought in an outsider. there are a lot of similarities between canada and the u.s. but some very distinct differences, and one of them involves the markets. you are the main equity and clearing facility. you have everything in one shopp right? >> we also own and operate the country's futures and options market as well as and its clearinghouse. david: must make it a lot easier to see what's going on in the whole trading field. >> we think it allows us to provide a comprehensive suite of services to our clients, and the products and services are that much better because we have the whole breadth of the market. liz: has it brought prices down for your clients and customers in. >> well, with respect to our equity markets, our prices have come down roughly 85-90% since we originally -- liz: well, you know, i ask, because that's the whole point, right? we want to become the free market opportunity for people and at least enable you guys to make money at the same time. but here in the u.s. every time

an exchange like the nasdaq or the new york stock exchange tries to make any kind of merger or acquisition, it's usually rejected lately. >> well, i think what we've looked at is bringing together canada's financial markets under one institution so we can really have a very strong market. now, there are competitors. we have alternative trading systems that are owned and operated by other entities, and a low barrier to entry for new organizations to come to canada. but the reality is that we think we offer the most comprehensive services. david: let's talk about how our regulations might affect your companies. dodd-frank is going to have worldwide implications. >> well, dodd-frank's really important to us. in fact, i've spent personally a lot of time in washington over the last year as dodd-frank -- david: did they accept your input? >> for sure. the cftc, in particular. it impacts us in important ways because as our institutions execute interest rate swaps, they're going to have to be

bilaterally cleared. or multilaterally cleared oz opposed to -- as opposed to bilaterally. and that's important. and we believe that risk management is important for canada -- liz: okay, so you're giving it a thumbs up at least in that area? >> well, i am in terms of concept. the key is how are the rules going to impact, and we're still waiting for all the rules to be written. there were roughly 2200 pages of legislation without rules. the devil's in the rules, of course. david: isn't it, though, naturally going to be more -- if you have more clearing involved, won't it increase costs for the traders? >> we don't think so. we think as products come onto multilateral clearinghouses that we'll actually be able to offer relief as we look at the analysis of those, of the risk of those products against the derivatives -- david: but this is important, you think dodd-frank might actually save you money? >> well, i think this aspect of it will, where we can give cross-margin relief between interest rate swaps and our listed futures and options

products. i think that will add some benefit. but the key is going to be all the othee parts of dodd-frank where there's going to be increased costs. liz: all right. we just showed something that is really kind of important, and that's late hi your average trading volume is down about 20%. we also have transactions down about 14% january to november, so i guess the question becomes is that just global malaise? when do you expect it to come back up, and what would be the catalyst for that? >> well, you know, i think if you talk to ceos in any business right now, we face enormous unserbty. i've been in the business world now for 32 years. never in my career have i seen the kind of uncertainty i see today with respect to tax regulation, with respect to general regulation like dodd-frank, with respect to where are our national economies going, where is the leadership? and we have the fiscal cliff in the united states. we're three weeks away from that. it's incomprehensible to me personally that we can still be facing that issue -- david: is a possible recession

on the horizon? >> well, i hope not. i think that the ramifications of the fiscal cliff, um, will be important. i'm optimistic that we're going to get some leadership in washington that'll actually save us from having to go off that cliff or down that hill, if you will. but i think we are -- there's uncertainty. and whenever there's uncertainty, the market will have less volume in it. liz: tom kloet, good to see you. >> thanks for having me. liz: ceo of the tmx group. david: a u.s. plant right in the heart of canada. they don't realize it yet. [laughter] good to see you. >> thank you. david: well, is now the time to buy apple? a morningstar senior equity analyst thinks so and says some of the blame for the recent decline should fall on washington. why? find out why, coming next. liz: plus, choice hotels expanding its upscale brand right here in america. they must believe that there's a real market here. find out why they're starting three brand new upscale ones at

least here in new york. steve joyce, choice hotels ceo and president, joining us after the break. ♪

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as all three major indices ended in the green. six of 10 s&p sectors posted gains? what led it? technology and consumer discretionary. did you posted a big drop in four weeks of concern over europe's debt crisis weakened demand for the metal. the european central bank cutting growth forecast, copper big in development, down more than 1%. the average u.s. rates on fixed mortgages rose slightly last week but remain near record lows. average rate on a 30-year loan climbing to 3.34%. so low still. while the 15 year fixed mortgaged moved up 2.67%. david. david: we hear from businesses all the time to say they aren't expanding in the u.s. because of uncertainty and a slowing economy. we found a ceo expanding here in the u.s. and also abroad. liz: joining us is the ceo. president of choice hotels international. steve joyce is here.

breaking ground on three brand new higher end hotels. we have to believe there is customer ready to open up the wallet and pay for the higher end rooms. >> business is really good. we broke ground on three new suite hotels in a 24-hour period which i think is a first. we are expanding rap i hadly. we have great partners. first one will be open next may and one in chelsea and times square. great people. great operations. it will be a great thing for our company. this is it our first movement into the upscale space. david: this is upscale but you have some of the cheaper sites like comfort in and econolodges. does it hurt to have two different brands to appeal to different types? or better to have one brand for a company and make it stick? >> you have a lot of folks focused on value. that is our core.

we're mostly moderate and below. we have free parking free wi-fi, free breakfast for most of our brands. that is our core client. we have demand for our folks that want to go into new york city. we don't have a lot of product in new york city. hard to develop a lower end brand, moderate hot tell tier. hard to make the numbers work. cambria, will be higher alternative value. liz: what is the rate on king room, not a suite, a basic room? >> the basic room in new york in the manhattan for us it will run somewhere in the low 200s. but remember --. liz: very reasonable. >> that's a value compared to the five or $600 you will be paying in are a lot of upper upscale hotels. david: how are you financing? credit is tough to get. >> credit is tough. it is getting better. gotten better in urban markets. this year it really improved. david: has that changed your plans? has i had made you more

aggressive? >> it is a great time to build because we think the hotel business is continuing to expand for the next several years. new york is obviously one of the hottest markets in the country. it is a great place for us to launch a brand. everybody is here. all the travel managers are here. when they see the hotels they hope they book them at our other hotels. we believe the time is right to build. financing is still a little tough. why we stepped in with our balance sheet to fill in some of that capital. that is working well. the deals we've been working for the last three or four years, last year they started happening. this year they're coming in a hurry. we're gaining momentum. it is exciting. we're putting a thousand jobs into the city. 641 rooms. we're investing a $141 million and the numbers, returns for the partners look terrific. liz: it all looks great but one of the things that you did was join the push up to the fast track dividend party like all of the many companies, more than 200, who have pushed up their dividend to before the end

of the year. you announced your quarterly dividend instead of being payable in january will be payable december 27th. you're just squeaking in under the line. clearly you worry about tax implications after the first of the year. if you have the president's ear, what is ceo creating jobs would you say to him? these are the exact types of leaders he needs like you? >> what we're seeing at this point we're hoping that some rational conversation comes into that tax debate particularly around dividends. we're a big wleefr in return to shareholders. we believe it moves a little bit --. liz: i was going to say would you stomach up 20%, 25%? >> we did a special dividend this summer. we returned over 600 dal million to our shareholders. we think taxes will never be lower. that and choice generates a lot of cash. we'll be back to investment grade within 18 months. yet what we would say to the president and we're pretty active on the hill as well, look, give us something we

can work with. don't radically change that dividend picture because folks depend on those dividends that is an important part of the stock yield at this point. a lot more important, we're not getting appreciation as in previous years. we believe strongly in return on capital to shareholders. if they push that to the marginal rate, that is not an efficient way for us to preserve capital. david: 300%. 300%. threefold increase in the dividend tax. you. >> so we'll examine it. what we did which is what a lot of other companies are doing, we believe it is a prudent strategy, we paid our dividend in december. we had to announce soon because under the rules we had to get it done. that gave us time to watch and see what they do in washington. then we'll, based on what they do we'll decide what our dividend strategy will be going forward. liz: thank you for creating jobs. david: yesterday, citigroup let 11,000 go. you're adding 1000.

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payable december 27th, superseding its previous plans to repurchase up to 200 dal million of stock. medtronic is also moving up its 28 cent dividend to december 28th but dell is waiting until january 2nd to distribute their dividend which amounts to eight cents a share. "the wall street journal" reports andy virus mogul john mcafee has been hospitalized. he is being detained in guatemala for entering the country illegal. police in belize want to question him about the murder of his neighbor in their country. he may have suffered a heart attack. that is latest from fox business, giving you the power to prosper

liz: apple shares rising after approaching the infamous death cross. what is that? the death cross is where the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day average. david: but today's stock gains, were not so dramatic

as recent selloff that our next guest says partly could be attributed to profit-taking on a fear of an increase in capital-gains tax. "morningstar" senior equity analyst joins us now. brian, we've been talking a lot about companies are changing their pattern and behavior of dividends and a lot of things as a result of increased taxes are coming. how much of apple's decline is because people want to lock in the gains at pretax rate, the cheaper tax rate that will go up in 2013? >> well we think that is the single biggest factor of all the selling. look at september high of 705 that is 70% increase. natural profit take was part of the selling in november and december. you have increased fears about fiscal cliff, increased fears about capital-gains taxs. that added another layer of selling. after that happened you have a bad looking chart and technical factors come in. if you saw a bounce-bacc from 505 to 590 last couple weeks that is profit-taking again.

there is good chance people locked in even short term gains over the past month and really tried to take advantage of the better trade. liz: exactly. you can't deny there is great opportunity to take profits of the table. look at fundamentals of the company. if you looked on every kid in america's wish-list for christmas or hanukkah there is apple product on there. call it what it is. it is a popular, popular get for anybody, no matter what, the question becomes is it a trade where people believe now that because apple is now facing competition, okay, from the android tablets and kindle fire which is undeniably hot as well, maybe people are starting to let it worm in their brain that apple might not always be the number one toy? >> there is certainly a chance of that and i think google and amazon they will capture the more price sensitive customer. i think important thing to consider in smartphones and tablets apple doesn't need 100% of the market. if you think about the

smartphone business in total over the next few years, most of the growth will come from emerging markets. it will be lower priced hand-sets and probably android. as long as apple maintains premium share of smartphone market say at high-end we think they will be fine. david: bring an, bring it to where we started and tax issue and how much that apt affects the trade now. the people locking in profits now and are selling will they buy back in at the lower rate after the first of the year? >> i certainly think that is the case. it is certainly possible if they have a good quarter in the beginning of january. so i think that could be a catalyst to get investors to pile back in. david: let me press you, brian before you go, what do you think the price will be when that happens, when it gets back to the new normal? what will it be in 2013? >> we think it is a buying opportunity in the mid 600s. if it stays in the range it is in it is value target is

770. there is certainly room for upside in the, in the short term. liz: i would think so at 770. brian, we'll be watching it to see if it hads level. thank you so much. david: see you brian. >> thank you. david: coming up stocks may slide in 2013. coming up next the editor-in-chief of the stock and commodity traders almanac. this is a fun kind of thing. what will happen with the weather? we have an almanac that will tell you what will happen with the stocks. we'll tell you what will happen coming right up. you should know that axiron is here. the only underarm treatment for low t. that's right, the one you apply to the underarm. axiron is not for use in women or anyone younger than 18. axiron can transfer to others through direct contact. women, especially those who are or who may become pregnant, and children should oid contact where axiron is applied as unexpected signs of puberty in children or changes in body hair or increased acnen women may occur. report these signs and symptoms to your doctor if they occur. tell your doctor about all medical conditions

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david: stocks off to a choppy start this month as the battle inside the beltway continues but the fiscal debate may not be the best indicator of next year's market. liz: forget that. we've got somebody who says seasonal trends are worth watching and a few may be signaling a possible pullback. joining us jeff hirsch. he lives and breathes this stuff. he is the stock traders al man snack editor-in-chief. -- almanac. people live and die by this thing. what you're indicating that indicates a pullback. >> self things. the post-election year itself is the worst year of the cycle. even research put out recently still shows there is an issue there. i look back to the secular bear market of '66 to '82

period. four election year exits in six at this sate, '72, '76 and 80 where we had significant bear market the following year. i think we're in a similar situation. nothing ever repeats exactly but i think there is rhyming going on. david: milton friedman says there is no such thing as a free lunch but there is on wall street. tell us about the free lunch and how it might affect investing. >> this catches attending on the friedman comment but there's a small cap effect, john effect which we found starts in mid-december. most of that move for the small caps happens last two weeks of december. what we found over the year stocks making new 52-week lows around mid-december or we moved it up to triple-witching day, a lot of volatility. and call through some of the stocks and pull out really bizarre ones and trim down, anything that is not a common stock preferred, new issues, that sort of thing. this is averaged about, you know, 11.7% per year.

only been eight down years from that basket. we've beat the new york stock exchange every single year exempt for five in the last 38 years. a quick trading bounce. you get ones that are down. you don't want to stick around too long. liz: here we are early december. what are your tea leaves showing you about a santa clause rally? >> the santa claus rallies are tea leaves themselves. they get excited about rally. year-end rally from november or halloween through january. it originated by yale hirsch in 72. my father, mentor, guy who founded the book. last five trading days of the year and first seven of the new year. liz: i thought it was leadings up to christmas day? >> no, this is after. bullish bias. get weakness in middle part of december. get a bounce after tax-loss selling and profit-taking, window-dressing we were hearing about today, the portfolio pumping is over. you get this, you know,

average 1 1/2% rally. liz: going to see it this year? >> i'm not necessarily concerned are we going to see it. i want to see if we don't the line if we don't see it and santa claus may fail to call, bears come to broad and wall. last four times we haven't had it 94, 95. two thought eight we had -- 2008 pretty nasty bear market. if not bullish season there is something more dramatic at play. david: if, we're a month after the election. there are patterns after the election. are we fitting that pattern this year? >> yeah. the election year was up which is a sign of incumbent winning. we had a weak november after incumbent win. very typical. remains to seen if december fall follows that pattern. i think we're --. >> what about the year after an election? >> as i said before that is the worst of the four-year cycle. however a little better for democrats. they tend to spend more time debating and getting their policy initiatives together where republicans are more

conservative in ideology. come out a little quicker. post-election years up five, down one for republicans since world war ii. i mean for democrats, excuse me. >> jeff hirsch, stock traders almanac, editor-in-chief. david: has commodity traders almanac. you have it all covered. >> thank you. liz: who is the most overpaid actor according to the forbes when looking at box-office returns versus the big bucks they're paid? is it brad pitt? is it eddie murphy or is it adam sandler? we have the answer coming up want to try to crack it? yeah, that's the way to it! now we need a little bit more... [ ma announcer ] at humana, we understand the value of quality time and personal attention. which is why we are proud to partner with health care professionals w understand the difference that quality time with our members can make... that's a very nice cake! ohh! [ giggles ]

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investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully before investing. risk includes possible loss of principal. liz: let's go off the desk. uber-popular tim tebow is back in play. not as a starting quarterback of the jets but looking to score big for tivo as their new brand ambassador. ceo tom rogers signing tivo as the company's newest spokesperson. besides obviously rhyming both are under rated in their ability to deliver. tebow is already getting the game started with a new comercial promoting the dvr. david: would have been a better get two years ago. at any rate, forbes with the list of over paid actors. number one spot, you're right, eddie murphy. each dollar paid for his last three films returned $2.30. second place is catherine heigl bringing in an average $3.40 for